Copper: Industrial Growth Indicator — June 12, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter score of +19/100 indicates a BULLISH regime, driven by the Copper/Gold ratio's contribution to the risk-on score, which directly reflects rising global growth expectations. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The absence of negative headlines allows the Copper/Gold ratio to maintain its influence on the Alphameter score, driving sentiment in favor of copper price action, as the market focuses on the underlying growth indicators rather than reacting to specific news catalysts. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Industrial Growth Indicator, copper's recent 4.4% gain over the past 30 days and its 14.4% premium to the 200-day SMA suggest a positive outlook for global growth, consistent with the Alphameter's risk-on episode, where CPER has historically returned +5.6%/yr. The Copper/Gold ratio, a classic macro signal for global growth expectations, supports this view, as a rising ratio contributes to a risk-on score. Given copper's role as a leading indicator of global growth, its performance is closely tied to the Alphameter's regime logic, where a risk-on episode tends to favor industrial growth indicators. RISK FACTORS: Two potential catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Copper are a decline in the Copper/Gold ratio below 0.45, indicating weakening growth expectations, and a drop in the Alphameter score below -25, signaling a risk-off episode, which has historically corresponded to CPER returns of +9.4%/yr, outperforming many assets but still representing a regime shift that could impact copper's performance. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the US Non-Farm Payroll report on August 4, 2023, which will provide insight into the labor market and potentially influence the Alphameter score and the Copper/Gold ratio, as a strong jobs report could reinforce the current risk-on episode and support copper prices.