EUR/USD: Dollar Dominance Report — June 12, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter reading of +19/100 indicates a BULLISH regime for EUR/USD, driven by the inverted DXY indicator which contributes to a higher risk-on score when the dollar is weak, thereby supporting euro strength. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The lack of specific headlines today means the key indicator of DXY strength is the primary sentiment driver, as a weak dollar directly contributes to a higher risk-on score and subsequently supports EUR/USD price action. ANALYSIS: Through the "Dollar Dominance Report" lens, the current EUR/USD price action suggests that capital is rotating out of safe haven dollars and into risk-on euros, as evidenced by the 7d and 30d changes of -0.4% and -1.3% respectively, which is consistent with the backtest data showing EUR/USD gains +3.1%/yr in a risk-on regime, driven by dollar weakness. The fact that EUR/USD is 0.9% below its 200-day SMA also suggests that the pair has room to rebound. The Alphameter's use of DXY strength as a core indicator highlights the importance of dollar weakness in driving risk-on EUR/USD gains. With the current risk-on regime, the backtest data suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue its upward trend. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for EUR/USD are a DXY breakout above 95, which would indicate a strong safe-haven demand for dollars, and a 200-day SMA crossover to the downside, which would suggest a long-term bearish trend for the pair. WATCH: The upcoming ECB Monetary Policy Meeting on June 15th will be closely watched, as any changes to interest rates or forward guidance could impact the euro and subsequently the EUR/USD pair.