Practical Guide
How to Read the Alphameter
The Alphameter scores six cross-asset indicators into a single risk-on / neutral / risk-off verdict, updated twice daily.
The Alphameter Score
Market Score
Ranges from -100 to +100. Six cross-asset indicators — VIX, AUD/JPY, Copper/Gold, Bond Yields, Sector Rotation, and Dollar Strength — are combined into a single composite that classifies the current state as risk-on, neutral, or risk-off. This is the only regime score we surface on the dashboard.
Market Regime
The market score classifies into three regimes. Each regime has historically favoured different asset classes.
Risk-On
Score > +25Markets are confident. Growth assets tend to outperform: crypto, uranium, oil, semiconductors. In backtesting, Brent annualised +33.2%, WTI (USO) +27.1%, URNM +62.8%, and BTC +62.0% during risk-on episodes.
Neutral
Score -25 to +25No clear direction. Under episode logic, only 61 truly neutral days exist in 30 years — too thin a sample to draw conclusions from. The safest approach is reduced position sizing while waiting for the next directional flip.
Risk-Off
Score < -25Fear is elevated. Safe havens tend to outperform: gold, silver, long-term Treasuries, USD/JPY. Non-US indices (Nikkei, FTSE) have historically performed well here too — capital rotates out of overvalued US markets.
Asset Class Cheat Sheet
30 years of backtesting across 37 assets reveals clear regime preferences for each asset class. These are annualised returns from the full backtest.
International Equities
Non-US indices broadly track the US risk-on signal — when global risk appetite returns, all major equity markets benefit. The Nikkei and ASX show the cleanest separation; FTSE 100 is roughly flat across regimes.
| Index | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Best In |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | +16.6% | -1.9% | Risk-On |
| FTSE 100 | +5.7% | +5.7% | Either |
| DAX | +13.4% | +8.0% | Risk-On |
| Hang Seng | +11.7% | +3.2% | Risk-On |
| ASX 200 | +11.9% | +1.3% | Risk-On |
Forex
Currency pairs reveal the dollar cycle. Safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF) strengthen in risk-off as capital flows to safety. Risk currencies (GBP, AUD) strengthen in risk-on.
| Pair | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +3.1% | -0.2% | Dollar weakness in risk-on |
| USD/JPY | +3.8% | +1.1% | Carry trade in risk-on |
| USD/CHF | -4.7% | -0.7% | CHF safe haven in risk-off |
| GBP/USD | +1.8% | -3.2% | Risk-on currency |
| AUD/USD | -0.7% | +1.0% | Commodity carry currency |
Commodities
Oil shows the cleanest risk-on signature in the entire universe. Gold is mildly risk-off-leaning but earns positively in both regimes. Copper is muted under episode logic, while silver behaves more like a high-beta risk-on asset.
| Asset | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Best In |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (BZ=F) | +33.2% | -13.5% | Risk-On |
| WTI (USO) | +27.1% | -25.6% | Risk-On |
| Copper (CPER) | +5.6% | +9.4% | Risk-Off |
| Gold (GLD) | +11.3% | +13.0% | Risk-Off |
| Silver (SLV) | +18.2% | +9.0% | Risk-On |
Bonds
Under episode logic across 30 years, Treasury ETFs barely differentiate between regimes — long bonds (TLT) earn a similar ~1%/yr in both. The post-2020 rate environment broke their traditional defensive role. Use them for capital preservation, not regime alpha.
| ETF | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT (20Y+) | +1.3% | +1.2% | Negligible regime spread |
| IEF (7-10Y) | +0.3% | +1.5% | Mild risk-off bias |
| SHY (1-3Y) | +0.1% | +0.1% | Cash-like |
What to Watch For
Score Direction Matters More Than Level
A market score of +15 that was +27 last week is very different from a score of +15 that was +5 last week. The trajectory tells you whether conditions are improving or deteriorating — the absolute number tells you where you are.
Exogenous Shocks Override Regimes
Wars, supply shocks, and black swan events can override normal regime relationships. The Iran conflict in 2026 pushed oil +43% during risk-off — the opposite of its historical pattern. When geopolitics drives a specific commodity, the regime signal for that asset becomes unreliable. The regime signal for other assets often remains intact.
Neutral Is Not Safe
The neutral regime is where most assets underperform and drawdowns are largest. 26 years of backtesting shows that crypto and small-caps get particularly punished during extended neutral periods. The absence of a signal is itself a signal — reduce exposure.
When Does It Update?
The Alphameter refreshes twice daily on trading days:
- 9:30 AM ET — NYSE open snapshot. Captures overnight moves and pre-market sentiment.
- Midnight UTC — End of day snapshot. Captures the full trading session and after-hours moves.
You can also trigger a manual refresh from the dashboard at any time.
Important Disclaimer
Market regime backtests use 30 years of data (1996-2026). Past performance does not guarantee future results. Regime relationships can break down during unprecedented events (wars, pandemics, structural market changes).
This guide is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. The Alphameter is a quantitative model with inherent limitations. Always do your own research.